In West Africa, regional staple food production for the 2017/18 marketing year is estimated to be above average, increasing for the fourth consecutive year. Locally-produced grain prices were stable at seasonally low levels, but remained above average across much of the region. Below average pastoral conditions and reduced exports to Nigeria continue to influence livestock markets in many areas. Market anomalies remain largely concentrated in the eastern marketing basin (Page 3).

In East Africa, markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access and putting upward pressure on prices. Staple food prices varied acorss the region. Currency depreciation, elimination of wheat and wheat flour subsidies, and the delayed harvest drove atypical price increases in Sudan and kept prices significantly above average. Prices were atypically stable or declining in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania (Page 4).

In Southern Africa, domestic maize supplies are beginning to tighten in maize deficit countries but remain available in surplus producing South Africa and Zambia. Maize prices exhibited mixed trends as the lean season progressed but were generally below average levels for most of the region. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices remain competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia and South Africa) and international markets (from South Africa) (Page 5).

In Central America, maize and bean availability remained high with supplies from the recent average to above-average Primera harvest and Postrera harvest. While maize prices remain below average across the region, bean prices varied. In Haiti, local black bean prices were mixed while local maize grain prices tightened for a second consecutive month due to below average supply. The price of imported maize meal decreased while imported rice prices remained firm (Page 6).

International staple food markets remain well supplied.
Rice, maize, wheat and soybean prices rose in January largely from a combination of higher import demand and concerns over growing conditions for major producers (Figure 2). Crude oil prices tightened for the seven consecutive month and remain at their highest since December 2014 (Page 2).

FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data. 

International rice prices rose sharply in January partly due to strong import demand from Indonesia (InterRice and World Bank). Rice prices were above previous year levels for the same period (Figure 2). Global supplies continue to remain close to average levels (Figure 3). 

Global maize prices increased slightly due to marginally higher global trade, underpinned by larger Turkey and European Union imports. Maize prices continue to remain below previous year and average levels. World Bank and USDA). 

Global rice stocks will continue to remain well above average levels even with expectations for a marginal decline in rice stocks for 2018. Global rice acreage is predicted to expand for major exporters in 2018/19 as trade volumes remain high (IGC and InterRice). 

Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 2). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies. 

Trade flows are dynamic in the region with the progression of the main marketing period. Burkina Faso has increased its coarse grain imports due to relatively low stocks. Mauritania is also importing large quantities of sorghum from neighboring countries for both human consumption and animal feed. However, Senegal has suspended imports of groundnuts and maize due to abundant availability of these products. Trade remained disrupted in the insecurity stricken Greater Lake Chad basin, as well as parts of Northern and Central Mali. 

In Nigeria, locally-produced market supplies are above- average due to above-average production while demand remained low due to limited purchasing power. Prices increased on several markets in January due to demand pressure from agro-industries and institutions, increased cross-border demand from the countries in the Sahel (given the depreciated NGN value vis-à-vis XOF), high transport costs aggravated by restricted fuel access, and elevated inflation rates. Prices remained above-average. 

In the Sahel, prices are stable or lower compared to the previous month. However, locally-produced coarse grain prices remained above their respective 2017 and average levels (Figure 5), while rice (imported and local) prices were mostly stable across the Sahel. The Central Bank of Mauritania rebased the Ouguiya currency, but this change has had no significant effects on prices. In coastal countries, rice prices are above average, while tuber prices are below average. 
Livestock markets in the Sahel remain affected by relatively low export demand and volumes to Nigeria. Below average grazing conditions has also led to above average sales and earlier than usual seasonal transhumance. Atypical small- ruminant exports from Niger to the Central basin were also reported. Prices are therefore below average in most countries. This price trend has put downward pressure on livestock to cereals terms of trade for pastoralists. 

Market supplies will be further strengthened until the end of the post-harvest period in March/April, while demand will progressively increase through to the lean season. Dynamic institutional purchases will lead traders to sell off stocks. 
Prices will follow their normal seasonal trends, but at above average levels in most countries. Prices could begin to increase earlier than usual due to expected early stocks depletion in deficit areas. 
In Nigeria, both markets and household stocks will remain well supplied during the early months of the marketing year, bolstered by dry season harvests. Above average trader and institutional demand will put additional pressure on prices beginning in June as the lean season approaches. Maize and millet prices may increase as early as May ahead of Ramadan. 

In Yemen, the ongoing conflict continued to curb economic activities, eroding the purchasing power and restricting market access by most households. Wheat flour prices increased again due to exceptional upward pressure from ongoing currency depreciation, which increased imported food prices, in addition to the lingering effects of the port blockade by the Saudi coalition, which limited commercial and food aid imports and increased the costs of distribution through heightened fuel scarcity. 
Prices were mixed in Somalia, remaining stable or declining in the southern and north-western regions due to availability from the December-to-January harvests, but increasing in the central region as ample supplies were yet to reach the markets. Local quality goat prices were generally higher across most regions as a result of reduced supply of saleable animals to the markets following recent droughts, as well as constant demand for local meat consumption. 

Staple food (millet and sorghum) prices continued to increase atypically in Sudan despite the ongoing October-to-January harvests because of local currency depreciation, elimination of wheat and wheat flour subsidies, increased harvesting and transport costs, and delayed harvest. Wheat prices also increased for the fifth consecutive month as supplies tightened. Prices of all staple foods are above-average (Figure 7) due to the deteriorating economic conditions and are expected to remain elevated in the coming months. Livestock prices declined slightly across most markets following increased market supplies as pasture and water availability start to decline. 

In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania prices were atypically stable or declining. In Ethiopia, high inflation following currency devaluation outweighed downward pressure on prices from increased locally produced supplies. The October-to-January harvests in the main producing area of North-Rift and the eastern marginal agricultural area, in addition to imports from Uganda and Ethiopia, boosted supplies in Kenya. In Tanzania, maize supplies from the May-to-August (Msimu) harvest were above average and market demand is atypically low resulting from the lingering effects of the maize export ban that has recently been lifted. Prices in Uganda were stable or increasing in most markets as stocks began to decline. 

In Southern Africa, maize supplies tightened in grain deficit countries but remain available in South Africa and Zambia following above average regional maize harvests. Both countries maintained exports to regional grain deficit countries and beyond. Formal and informal maize trade ensured movement of surpluses to deficit areas of the region. In Madagascar, local (gasy) rice and maize harvests were 20 percent below previous year levels as imported rice continued to play an important role in staple food supply. 
Maize prices were mixed as the lean season progressed in most of Southern Africa (Figure 8). With the exception of Madagascar and parts of northeastern DRC, maize prices were below their respective 2017 and average levels for most of the region, while the price of common substitutes such as maize meal, rice, and cassava were mixed. 

In South Africa, January maize export parity prices rose to international reference levels after relative stability in the second half of the 2017/18 marketing year. Prices were stable or increasing in Zambia’s grain deficit areas due to declining supply levels and demand pressure from DRC. 

In Zimbabwe, maize prices rose sharply to levels closer to their respective 2017 and average levels. Prices in Tanzania declined atypically and were below average levels owing to the combination of above average Msimu harvest and weaker demand following the removal of its export ban in November 2017. Prices rose in Malawi after four consecutive months of relative stability but were mixed in Mozambique despite above average supplies in the northern and central regions. In Madagascar, maize prices were mixed in January while local (gasy) rice prices were mostly stable as early harvest began to supply some markets. The exception were areas affected by cyclone AVA, which caused temporary market disruption in parts of southeastern Madagascar (Figure 9). In the DRC, maize prices rose for key reference markets in the Ituri, North Kivu and Tanganyika provinces but were largely stable in the Kasai region and Haut Katanga province. 

Regional maize supplies will gradually decline through March 2018, except for South Africa and Zambia where supplies may continue to remain above average and satisfy needs in grain deficit countries. Regional trade will strengthen in the coming months in anticipation of below average harvests in countries that experienced dry conditions during the main vegetative to reproductive stages of the 2018 maize crop. International trade may begin weakening at the start of the 2018/19 marketing year as South Africa and Zambia are likely to prioritize regional exports. In most of the region, maize prices will increase through March before declining seasonally at near average levels beyond March, owing to poor expected 2018 harvests. In Madagascar, maize supply will improve with the upcoming March harvest while market supply for local (gasy) rice will be exhausted with prices tightening by March as local rice (gasy) is increasingly replaced by imported rice. The combination of below average harvests and conflict related market disruptions will continue to sustain atypically high maize prices for key reference markets in eastern DRC. 

Maize supplies from the recent average to above- average Primera, the main maize harvest, and the ongoing Postrera harvest continued to seasonally increase in markets throughout the region. Informal flows to Guatemala from Mexico remain elevated because of the decline in value of the Mexican Peso and continue to boost maize availability. While white maize prices followed typical trends in El Salvador, where they remained stable, and Nicaragua, where they began to seasonally increase. While prices usually also begin to increase in Guatemala and Honduras in January, ample availability kept prices stable. Prices remain below average levels across the region (Figure 10). 

Bean prices were stable across the region in January due to the increase in bean supplies in markets from the recent Primera and ongoing Postrera harvests as well. 
After three months of elevated prices in Honduras driven by road closures and transport limitations caused by political tensions around the presidential elections, the situation has stabilized. Bean prices in January compared to historical levels (2017 and five-year average) varied. 
In Haiti, local black beans prices were mixed but remain above average. Prices eased in areas where harvests were still ongoing but increased in other areas owing to a combination of below average harvest and growing farmer preference in selling green beans, which is considered more profitable. Local maize grain prices increased due to weak supply from below average Automne/Hiver harvests. The most significant increase in prices were in Les Cayes and Fonds-des-Nègres, where supply tightened further following the procurement of local maize grain under the Programme National de Cantines Scolaires (PNCS). Imported maize meal prices eased slightly in January, while imported rice prices were firm at levels above their five-year average (Figure 11). 

In Central America, maize and bean prices will likely follow seasonal trends and slightly increase or remain stable through April. Bean prices are expected to start to decrease with supplies from the Apante harvests in April in Nicaragua and Honduras, and the Peten harvest in Guatemala. The average to above-average maize supply levels are expected to sustain below-average prices across the region through May 2018, except in Nicaragua where prices are projected to be trend closer to average levels. Bean prices compared to average levels may vary in the region. 

In Haiti, cereal import requirements for the 2017/18 marketing year remains above average but below record levels from the 2016/17 marketing year (FAO). Local black beans are expected to ease in February as supply increases from ongoing hiver harvests. Local maize prices will likely continue to tighten as early planting begins for the 2018 Printemps season. 
Markets will continue to be supplied with imported commodities such as rice, maize meal, vegetable oil and wheat. 
Imported commodity prices will be firm but remain above average levels and will continue to respond to changes in import policies as well as the Haitian gourde to USD exchange rate. 

Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia with the progression of the 2017/18 marketing year (Figure 12 and Table 1). As detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, localized wheat deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade. 

Wheat flour prices in Tajikistan are stable. Prices in December remained 8.9 percent above the five-year average. Potato prices decreased through the end of 2017 but are still above 2016 and five-year average prices. The value of Tajikistani Somoni (TSJ) has remained stable between December 2017 and January 2018. 

In Pakistan, wheat grain and flour prices remained stable between December and January in major markets. Prices are comparable to 2017 levels and the five-year average, reflecting average production and above-average carry- over stocks. 
In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were mostly stable between December and January but varied among the main markets following a below-average wheat harvest in 2017. The current retail price of wheat flour is slightly lower than last year and the five-year average. Currently, the price of low quality rice is nine percent higher than January 2017. The current average price of high quality rice is 20 percent higher compared to January 2017, and 12 percent higher than the five-year average price. 

Total wheat grain production in Pakistan for the 2017/18 marketing year is estimated at 26.5 MMT, higher than ever, by the Federal Committee on Agriculture and USDA/FAS. The favorable weather conditions in January have increased the likelihood of achieving this target. Average production for the last couple of years has resulted in above-average carry- over stocks that are nearly double the five-year average. 

The 2017 harvest in Afghanistan is below last year and five-year average according to the Agricultural Prospects Report of the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock. Favorable regional supply conditions are expected to contribute to stable prices in Afghanistan. Namely, the above-average wheat production in Pakistan, which could support stabilizing prices in Afghanistan if political tension between the two countries does not affect wheat flour imports. 


