Due to limited labor opportunities, as well as limited access to grazing and agricultural lands caused by the widespread insurgency, affected households throughout much of the country will remain in need of assistance in July 2018. Seasonal forecasts indicate a likelihood for below-average 2017/2018 precipitation, which could hinder rainfed staple crop performance.

July is the peak of the lean season in South Sudan and emergency humanitarian assistance will be needed across the country to prevent the loss of lives and collapse of livelihoods. Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes likely exist currently and are also expected through July. In a worst-case scenario of an extended absence of assistance and persistent conflict that prevents household movement in search of food, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely. 

Currently elevated food prices in the northeast are expected to increase further during the 2018 lean season due to seasonal market dynamics and increased demand from Sahelian countries. Boko Haram conflict continues to severely disrupt livelihoods in much of Borno State and parts of Adamawa and Yobe States and has led to poor 2017 staple harvests in these areas. There remains an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) outcomes during the period.
SE pastoral: Jan - March 2018
Large areas of southeastern Ethiopia are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3!), with humanitarian assistance preventing worse outcomes in some areas. Sustained, large-scale assistance is needed through 2018, particularly in Dollo, Korahe, and Jarar zones, to mitigate the risk of increases in acute malnutrition and a further deterioration of outcomes. Large-scale displacement due to conflict in late 2017 in areas along the Oromia-Somali border is also a concern. 

Pastoral: January - March 2018
The Deyr harvest is supporting improvements in food security in January, and the Gu harvest will improve food security outcomes in July. However, improvements in both time periods are expected to be short-lived due to below-average harvest prospects and low livestock holdings. As a result, many households still face large food gaps and are heavily relying on humanitarian assistance. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) exists in a worse-case scenario of an extended absence of assistance. 

Tanganyika: January - April 2018
Conflict-related population movements in eastern and southern DRC have affected Season A and Season B cultivation. This led to below-average harvests during Season A that are also likely again for Season B. As a result, there will be food assistance needs through at least the end of the lean season in April 2018, particularly in the greater Kasai region and Tanganyika. 

Karamoja: March - June 2018
South Sudanese refugees are the largest population in need of humanitarian assistance, though a growing number of people from the DRC have recently sought refuge in Uganda and are expected to require assistance. Current funding allows for assistance through April, but in the absence of assistance after April, these populations would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

Localized pastoral resource deficits and below-average cereal production will likely cause an early depletion of household stocks. As a result, an early lean season is expected in pastoral and agricultural areas in January and May, respectively. 

In July, the marginal agricultural harvests, even if below-average, are expected to improve food availability and access for poor households. However, in parts of Isiolo and Tana River, poor forage regeneration, followed by a likely below-average long rains (March-May 2018) season, is expected to maintain many poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).  

The Diffa Region and pastoral areas are affected by the Boko Haram conflict as well as localized deficits in pastoral resources. 
Livestock prices driven by low demand from Nigeria are expected to remain depressed. As a result, poor terms of trade for livestock-to-cereal will likely move pastoral households to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) starting in February.  

February - September 2018
The ongoing conflict has disrupted livelihoods, access to agricultural lands, and market functioning. Needed humanitarian assistance is constrained by a decrease in funding, continued conflict, and poor road conditions. 


