In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International rice and wheat imports continue to support regional market supplies. Prices continued to increase seasonally in many areas, as household stocks depleted and market purchases intensified. Current market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, and the impacts of the continued depreciation of the Naira (Page 3). 

In East Africa, staple food supplies remain tight and prices well above-average in South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen. 
Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity in Yemen and South Sudan. Import capacity in Yemen is uncertain, and food availability may be constrained in the coming months. Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania are also facing below-average staple food supply and above-average and increasing prices following poor harvests (Page 4). 

In Southern Africa, regional maize availability continued to improve in April with the progression of the 2016/17 production season. Regional maize production prospects for the current season are good with record-high harvests anticipated in South Africa. Maize prices were stable or declined in April, and are below their respective 2016 levels in many areas. The exception to these trends is in Tanzania, where supplies are tight and prices continue to increase in the central and northern areas of the countries (Page 5). 

In Central America, local maize availability continued to decline following the end of the recent Postrera harvest, while bean supplies from the Apante harvest continued to supply markets. Maize and bean prices were seasonally stable or decreasing across the region, with varied trends compared to average levels. In Haiti, local maize and bean prices saw a modest decrease from their March levels but continue to remain well above average levels (Page 6). Imported rice prices remain stable despite the depreciation of the Gourde. The recent removal of fuel subsidies has increased transportation costs and will place an upward pressure on staple food prices in the coming months. 

Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. 
Wheat prices in Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan remained stable and near 2016 levels. Rice prices in Pakistan increased following greater export demand, affecting also rice prices in Afghanistan. Intraregional trade is expected to fill staple food deficits in importing countries (Page 7). 

International staple food markets remain well supplied. Maize, wheat and soybean prices fell, while rice prices remained firm, (Figure 2). Crude oil prices increased and remain well below average (Page 2). 

International maize prices continued to ease in April due to ample supplies and prospects for strong export competition from the southern hemisphere. (FAO). Overall, maize prices remain below average levels, reflecting record global supply (AMIS and World Bank). 

International soybean prices fell for a second month as crop condition are upgraded for both Brazil and Bolivia. Global supplies remain above average as global consumption trails below global production (IGC and AMIS). 

Global rice trade is projected to increase by 3.5 percent in 2017 and may result in higher prices over the coming months (InterRice). Global closing stocks are forecasted to be lower but will remain above 2015/16 levels (USDA FAS). 

Global wheat consumption levels continue to trail behind production levels due to record harvests. A small dip in trade is anticipated for 2017/18 owing mainly to reduced imports from India and China (USDA FAS and World Bank). 

Global soybean production remains positive with global inventories now expected to match record levels from 2015/16. 
Stocks will tighten as trade increases on higher shipments to Far East Asia (USDA FAS and IGC ). 

International crude oil inventory levels remain high and are expected to result in an extension of the OPEC production cuts. Prices will continue to remain below average levels in the coming months. (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 

In West Africa, regional staple food availability was adequate in April. Production during the 2016/17 marketing year reached record high levels for maize and rice (Figure 4). In Nigeria, the depreciation of the Naira (NGN), official and unofficial restrictions on trade, and the ongoing conflict in the northeast continues to disrupt domestic staple food, cash crop, and livestock markets (Figure 5). The dynamic is Nigeria has had a significant impact on markets, trade flows, and price trends in neighboring areas of south-central and eastern Niger as well as central and south-western Chad. Elsewhere in the region, markets generally remain well supplied during the post-harvest period. 

Cross-border trade remained dynamic within and between the different basins in April. Reduced flows from Nigeria to Niger (due to the macro-economic situation in Nigeria coupled with border restrictions) were partially offset by intensified flows from the Central basin (Burkina Faso, Benin, Ghana, Togo, and Benin) to Niger. However, market and trade activities remain disrupted in insecurity stricken zones of the Greater Lake Chad area and, to a lesser extent, Northern/Central Mali. Exports from Mali continued to support market supplies in Mauritania. 

Cereal prices continued to increase seasonally in April, as household-level stocks declined. However, prices remain below their respective 2016 and five-year average levels across much of the Western and Central Basins. 
Institutional purchases are ongoing in the Central Basin, while subsidized sales and distributions began in deficit areas of the Eastern Basin. Local and imported rice prices remain above their respective 2016 and five-year average levels in Mauritania due to recent changes in the import tariff schedule. The majority of ongoing regional market supply and price anomalies are concentrated in the Eastern Basin. 

In Nigeria, the effects of multiple shocks continue to disrupt market activities, resulting in atypical price trends. However, the rate of inflation continued to slow in April. After declining between January and March due to the availability of ample supplies from recent main season and dry season harvests, prices on key reference markets increased between March and April. Prices are above their respective 2015/16 levels in central and eastern Niger where there were above- average localized deficits during the 2016/17 marketing year. Those same areas are now receiving lower than average staple food imports from Nigeria to fill the gap. Below average forage availability coupled with below average market demand has put downward pressure on livestock prices in Niger. In Chad, locally-produced staple food prices remain below their respective 2016 levels due to favorable production in 2016/17 and ample trader and institutional stocks. 

Market demand will continue increasing in May onward. Prices will remain close to average levels, except in areas where the macroeconomic and policy environment have pushed prices up (Mauritania and Nigeria) or where disruptions to trade flows limit the extent to which regional supplies fill localized deficits (Niger). Demand during the month of Ramadan will likely put upward pressure on prices for local cereals (millet in particular). 

In Nigeria, the macroeconomic situation may continue to make slow and incremental improvements. Import demand from regional markets for livestock and cash crops (cowpeas) will remain low through the end of the marketing year. 
Prices in the southern part of the country are expected to stabilize in May, but increase in the northern States (including the northeast) due to increased demand during the month of Ramadan and into the start of the lean season. FEWS NET will continue to monitor the situation closely. 

Local cereal availability is low and prices are significantly above-average in Somalia (Figure 6) due to poor production in the recent Gu and Deyr seasons. Maize prices increased seasonally but atypically drastically again in April in the main maize producing Qoryoley market in the southern region. Following a brief period of stabilization in March due to substantial humanitarian aid in the main sorghum producing area, sorghum prices began to increase again in Baidoa. Imported rice and wheat prices were stable in most markets due to low international prices, stable foreign exchange rates, and low fuel costs. Livestock prices increased seasonally. 

In Southern Africa, maize supplies on markets improved in April as producers and traders sold off their remaining stocks ahead of the anticipated good upcoming harvests. 
South Africa and Zambia continued exporting maize to regional grain deficit countries. Zimbabwe likewise continued importing maize from regional and international markets. Madagascar continued importing rice, thereby ensuring regular supplies of imported rice on local markets. 

Maize prices were stable or declining except in Tanzania (Figure 8). In northeastern Madagascar, the effects of Cyclone Enawo continued to disrupt markets and supply channels. Prices are now generally below their respective 2016 levels in the region. Exceptions to these trends are in Tanzania, Zambia, parts of Mozambique, and in structurally-deficit southern DRC (Lubumbashi) where staple food prices remain well above their 2016 and average levels. 

After importing aggressively from international markets through February, South Africa ceased importing in April. 
Maize export parity prices declined persistently in recent months due to the availability good 2016/17 harvest prospects. Prices in South Africa are now at or below international reference market prices. These trends continued encouraging exports (and re-exports) to regional markets and beyond (Figure 9). The official maize export restrictions in place since 2016 were lifted in Zambia in an effort to ensure that farmers and traders are able to sell their surplus stocks through regional sales. 

Maize prices reached their peak between January and February and declined sharply in March and April across most markets in Mozambique, while rice prices declined. 
Prices likewise continued declining in Malawi as producers and traders offloaded stocks in anticipation of good 2016/17 production. In Zimbabwe, prices remained stable due to economy-wide liquidity challenges that contribute to decreased purchasing power, as well substantial maize grain and meal imports by the GMB and private sector from regional and international markets. Production prospects are not favorable in Tanzania, however, prices declined in the surplus-producing southern highlands in April. While markets were disrupted by the effects of Enawo in the northeast of Madagascar, production prospects improved in the southern-most areas of the country, easing pressure on local supplies and prices. 

Maize supplies are expected to be average to above average from May onward due to good harvest prospects for most counties (except Tanzania). The region is likely to experience a close to average harvest. Maize prices are expected to decrease in May with the progression of harvests. Prices are expected to remain relatively higher in Tanzania, possibly encouraging further exports from the region. The recent Cyclone Enawo affected rice production prospects in surplus- producing northern Madagascar. Maize and cassava production prospects in Southern Madagascar have improved compared to 2016. However, local maize prices are expected to remain above average. 

In Central America, maize supplies continued to decline in April following the end of the Postrera harvest, while the ongoing Apante bean harvest sustained bean supplies. 
Local maize and black beans in Haiti saw a modest decrease in prices despite a lower than expected winter harvest for key staples. 

Nicaragua) across the region. April bean prices varied when compared to historical levels, remaining above average in Guatemala, near average in El Salvador, and below average in Honduras and Nicaragua. 

In Haiti, local maize and black beans prices fell in April but remain well above average (Figure 11). Local maize price remain higher than their April 2016 levels while black bean prices remained firm. In Cap Haitien, however, local black bean prices were 20 percent below March and April 2016 levels as wholesalers rushed to destock due to pest infestations. Nationally, imported rice remains largely available and prices remained stable. 

In Central America, maize prices are expected to begin to seasonally increase until the next harvest (Primera) in August 2017 and are likely to trend near average in Nicaragua and Honduras, and remain below-average in El Salvador and Guatemala. Maize supplies for the remainder of the 2016/17 marketing year are estimated at below-average but sufficient. 
Imports are also expected to help support availability, following typical trade trends. Bean prices will also likely increase seasonally during the lean season until the Primera harvest. Bean prices are expected to stay near or above average levels in Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras, and remain below or near average in El Salvador. 
In Haiti, both local and imported maize prices are expected to fall in the coming months, as prospects for the upcoming July harvest remain positive. Local bean prices will likely increase in the coming months as poor climatic conditions are expected to limit harvest levels in a period when preparations for spring planting are underway in key producing areas. 
The recent removal of fuel subsidies has resulted in higher transportation costs and is expected to place an upward pressure on staple food prices in the coming months. Despite the depreciation of the Gourde, imported rice availability and prices will remain stable. 

Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia with the progression of the 2016/17 marketing year (Figure 12 and Table 1). As detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, localized wheat deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade. 

Wheat grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region’s largest exporter, remained unchanged between March and April. Prices are six percent higher than respective 2016 levels but still 25 percent below the five-year average. 

Wheat flour prices in Tajikistan have remained nearly stable since early 2016, but remain 13 percent above the recent five-year average, mainly due to the effects of the 2015 depreciation of the Tajikistani Somoni (TSJ) in spite of average wheat harvest concluded in 2016. Potato prices increased by 36 percent between February and March and prices are now twice as of 2016 and 65 percent above the five-year average at the national level. 
In Pakistan, wheat grain and flour prices started to decline with arrival of new harvest. Prices are comparable to 2016 and the five-year average reflecting average production and above-average carry-over stocks. However, rice prices are getting momentum since the start of 2017 following increased export demand, particularly from China. 

In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were stable between March and April following an average wheat harvest in 2016. Prices are similar to the 2016 levels, but are slightly above the five-year average in some markets. Both high grade and low grade rice prices increased between March and April in some markets following the border closure between Afghanistan and Pakistan from February 17 to March 20, 2017 and more recent price increases in Pakistan. 

Regional availability and price trends are expected to continue varying across Central Asia. Official estimates from Kazakhstan confirm that nearly 15 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat were produced in 2016 - nine percent higher than the previous year and two percent above the five-year average. As of April 01, 2017, wheat stocks stand at 8.6 MMT, 11 percent higher than last year. For 2017/18 lower wheat production is expected due to the reduction in the cropped area motivated by the Kazakh crop diversification strategy (USDA/FAS). 

In Afghanistan, figures from the Agricultural Prospects Report of the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock indicate 4.5 MMT wheat production in 2016 that is nearly similar to 2015/16 and the average. Favorable domestic and regional supply conditions will contribute to stable prices in Afghanistan. The prices of goods that had increased because of the border closure have reverted (vegetables and fruits), or are reverting (rice) back to normal levels. 


