In West Africa, harvests across the Sahel were well underway in October. Aggregate regional staple food production for the 2017/18 marketing year is expected to be average to above average. Locally-produced grain prices declined seasonally in October, as post-harvest market sales and trade flows intensified. Trade opportunities with Nigeria continue to influence livestock market prices heavily in neighboring countries. Market anomalies remain mainly concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin and trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures in Nigeria (Page 3). 

In East Africa, markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity and significant macro-economic issues in Yemen and South Sudan, impeding staple food supply access and putting upward pressure on prices. Staple food prices were generally stable, supported with supplies from recent harvests, or began to decline in October with the imminent start of a harvest in most of the region. Livestock prices were mixed, increasing in some markets due to improved body conditions and declining in others because of increased supply during low demand (Page 4). 

In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent above average regional harvests. After reaching very high levels in 2016, maize prices were at or below their respective 2016 and average levels across much of the region in October. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions within the region. Export parity prices are competitive, encouraging exports to East Africa (from Zambia, South Africa, and Malawi) and international markets (from South Africa) (Page 5). 

In Central America, staple food availability remained high as the main maize harvest (Primera season), which is estimated to be average to above-average, came to an end in October. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable or increasing ahead of the Postrera harvest, and near or below average levels across the region. In Haiti, local maize and bean supplies tightened further as été harvests did not result in lower prices (Page 6). Imported rice prices increased significantly while the Haitian gourde experienced a slight appreciation against the USD. 

International staple food markets remain well supplied. Rice prices fell, wheat prices were mixed, while maize and soybean prices increased (Figure 2). 
Crude oil prices rose for the third consecutive month to levels above October 2016 prices (Page 2). 

Global maize prices rose slightly in October. 
U.S. prices saw the most significant increased as excessive rains delayed harvest in key growing areas of the U.S. Corn Belt. Maize prices continue to remain well below average levels (FAO and World Bank). 

International wheat prices were mixed in October. U.S. HRW prices eased, U.S. SRW increased moderately, while prices tightened in the Black Sea (AMIS and FAO). 
Global wheat supplies remain well above average levels (Figure 3). 
Global soybean prices continued to tighten amid worries over less than ideal weather in the Southern Hemisphere (IGC and AMIS). 

International crude oil prices tighten further due to declining global inventories, increasing expectation for oil demand growth and geopolitical events. (U.S. Energy Information Administration). 

Global rice trade is expected to expand modestly in 2018 with import growth centered in Asia. Prices will continue to ease in major Asian markets, at least through early 2018 with arrival of the new harvest. Global rice stocks will remain at the comfortable level of one third global consumption (AMIS and InterRice). 
Large global supplies and low export sales will continue to place downward pressure on global maize prices. Stocks are expected to remain steady with South America and Africa stock build-up offsetting stock drawdowns in Asia and Europe. 
Global (AMIS and World Bank). 
 2017 global wheat production is raised further on expectations for a larger harvest in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Stock to use ratios is forecasted to exceed 36 percent as consumption remains largely unchanged from last season (AMIS and World Bank). 

In West Africa, the 2017/18 marketing began in October. 
Market supplies continue to increase seasonally thanks to the availability of ongoing average to above average harvests from the 2017/18 production season. Regional staple food availability was adequate in October due to the availability of local remaining stocks from the previous production year, as well as regional and international trade flows (Figure 4). Pastoral conditions are favorable across much of the region, but remain below average in parts of Mauritania. In Nigeria, the depreciation of the Naira (NGN), official and unofficial restrictions on trade, and the ongoing conflict in the northeast continues to disrupt domestic and cross border staple food, cash crop, and livestock markets (Figure 5). 
Cross-border trade remained dynamic within and between the different basins in October. Staple food trade flows between Nigeria to Niger remained weak due to the macro-economic situation in Nigeria coupled with border persistent restrictions. During the previous marketing year, this dynamic was partially offset by intensified flows from the Central basin (Burkina Faso, Benin, Ghana, Togo, and Benin) to Niger, straining supplies and carryover stocks in exporting countries. Market activities remain disrupted in insecurity stricken zones of the Greater Lake Chad area and, to a lesser extent, Northern Mali. Trade flows are likewise constrained between Chad, Libya, and the Central Africa Republic. 
Cereal prices declined in October across much of the Sahel. Since June/July Local coarse grain prices have been elevated compared to their respective 2016 and five-year average levels in many areas. Local and imported rice prices remain above their respective 2016 and five-year average levels in Mauritania due to recent changes in the import tariff schedule. Demand for wheat for food and feed has increased in Mauritania due to below average sorghum harvests and below average pasture availability. Strong demand from Niger over the 2016/17 marketing year in Burkina Faso and southern Mali has resulted in relatively low trader carryover stocks. Imported rice prices are above average in Guinea and Liberia. 
In Nigeria, the effects of multiple shocks continue to disrupt market activities, resulting in atypical price trends in Nigeria and neighboring countries. Prices are above their respective 2015/16 levels in central and eastern Niger where there were above-average localized deficits during the 2016/17 marketing year. Those same areas continue to receive lower than average staple food imports from Nigeria to fill the gap. 

Pastoral grazing conditions are favorable in the central and eastern basins, with improved pasture and water availability. 
However, livestock prices remain well below average in Chad due to the reduced export opportunities to Nigeria, which would normally take place directly through conflict-affected zones. On the other hand, improving market demand for livestock from Nigeria and improving trading conditions has led to livestock price increases in Niger. 

Market demand is expected to remain seasonally low during the post-harvest period. Producer and traders are expected to continue releasing stocks, maintaining market supplies at sufficient levels. Grain prices will remain elevated in areas where the macroeconomic and policy environment have pushed prices up (Mauritania and Nigeria) or where disruptions to trade flows limit the extent to which regional supplies fill localized deficits (Niger and northeast Nigeria). Strong trader and institutional demand may put upward pressure on prices in the Burkina Faso and Niger. Despite favorable pastoral conditions and some improvements in marketing conditions, livestock prices in many parts of the Sahel (the Lake Chad basin in particular) will likely remain below average due to trade disruptions with Nigeria. 

Staple food prices seasonally declined in South Sudan with increased supplies from the start of the October-to-February harvest. However, prices remained atypically high (Figure 6), driven by deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, such as hyperinflation, depreciation of local currency, as well as depleted stocks from the previous significantly below-average harvest, erratic trade flows due to insecurity, and scarcity of fuel. Supplies are especially thin in areas where there is sustained conflict and high insecurity, including the Greater Upper Nile region, with seasonal deterioration of road access during the June-to-October rains. 

In Yemen, the ongoing conflict continued to curb economic activities, eroding the purchasing power and restricting market access by most households. 
Meanwhile, commodity prices faced exceptional upward pressure from ongoing currency depreciation, which increased imported food prices, in addition to the blockade of important ports by the Saudi coalition, further limiting commercial and food aid imports and increasing the costs of distribution through heightened fuel scarcity. 
Maize and sorghum prices in southern Somalia were atypically stable instead of increasing seasonally across most markets because of extensive food assistance, while prices increased seasonally in the central region as supplies tightened. In the north, prices were stable at high levels ahead of the imminent start of the October-to-December harvest. While imported food prices were generally stable, prices are elevated in the north due to Somaliland Shilling (SLS) depreciation. Livestock prices continued to be stable in the north with limited supply and demand following consecutive droughts, and increasing in the Shabelle and Juba regions with good animal body conditions following Hagaa rains in July and August, but declined atypically in the central region and parts of the South including Bay, Bakool, Hiran and Gedo because of poor body conditions and reduced demand. 
Staple food prices across most markets in Ethiopia and Sudan started to decrease or were stable ahead of imminent October-to-January harvests, with the exception of wheat in Sudan which increased as supplies tightened. However, prices were above-average levels in both countries (Figure 7). In Ethiopia, prices of imported foods, such as, wheat flour and vegetable oils, increased because of the devaluation of the Ethiopia currency. Livestock prices were mixed; increasing due to good body conditions in southeastern (Afder) and northern (Jijiga) pastoral markets of Ethiopia, while remaining stable or declining due to high supply amidst low demand in Shinile (northern) and Asyita, Abala and Awash (northern). 
Goat prices in Sudan either increased slightly or remained stable due to good body conditions amidst the end of May-to-October rains and high demand. 

Prices of maize and beans were seasonally stable or declining across most markets in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania with supplies from the start of the October-to-January harvests in Kenya and Uganda, and lingering supplies from the end of the May-to-August harvest in Tanzania. Regional imports, subsidized maize flour, and availability of substitutes also put downward pressure on prices in Kenya, while the export ban on maize in Tanzania mitigated prices. 

In Southern Africa, maize supplies on markets throughout the region were at average to above average levels following above average regional maize harvests for most countries. South Africa and Zambia continued exporting maize to regional grain deficit countries and beyond. 
Formal and informal maize trade ensured movement of surpluses to deficit areas of the region. 

Maize prices were generally stable or declined atypically in October (Figure 8) at a time when prices typically begin to increase seasonally. Prices remain below their respective 2016 and average levels in the region. Local rice (gasy) and maize harvests in Madagascar are below average. However, the country continued importing rice, ensuring regular supplies of imported rice on local markets. Rice prices in Madagascar are elevated compared to historical levels. 
After importing aggressively from international markets through February, South Africa ceased importing in April. 
Maize export parity prices declined persistently in recent months due to the availability well above average harvests for the 2017/18 marketing year. Prices in South Africa are now stable at international reference market price levels. 
These trends continued encouraging exports (and re- exports) to regional markets and beyond (Figure 9). 

Maize grain prices are well below their respective 2016 and average levels in most countries. Prices of common substitutes such as maize meal, rice, and cassava varied, but are generally below their respective 2016 levels. Imports into Zimbabwe from regional and international markets are well below average, but persist, despite an ongoing import ban. Prices and import demand have recently eased in many areas of Tanzania. In October, Malawi removed the export ban in place since early 2017 to encourage market and trade activities. While markets were disrupted by the effects of Enawo in the northeast of Madagascar, production prospects improved in the southern-most areas of the country, easing some pressure on local supplies and prices. Prices for rice increased in October, but were stable for other local commodities. Rice prices are well above their 2016 levels. 

Regional maize supplies are expected to remain at average to above-average levels throughout the marketing year. Trade between South Africa and Zambia, and regional grain deficit countries is likely to be dynamic but relatively weak given above average domestic supplies in most countries. International exports may however remain strong, as South Africa is likely going to continue exporting to East Asia and to global markets, while Zambia may continue exporting (formally and informally) to East Africa. Malawi and Mozambique are likely to continue trading informally to satisfy localized gaps, especially in border areas. Local rice supplies in Madagascar will continue to be augmented by imports. Maize prices are expected remain near or below average throughout the marketing year. In South Africa, maize prices are likely to remain depressed throughout the marketing year, encouraging regional and international trade. Local and imported rice prices in Madagascar are expected to remain above 2016 levels. 

In Central America, the Postrera season is expected start on time in early December and have average production. 
Maize and bean prices are likely to seasonally decrease until December/January, driven by ongoing increase in supply from the upcoming Postrera season, and then begin to increase during the post-harvest period starting in January/February. The average to above-average supply of maize and beans will sustain below-average prices through May 2018, except in Guatemala where bean prices are expected to trend near average. 

In Haiti, cereal import requirements for the 2017/18 marketing year remain above average but below record levels from the 2016/17 marketing year (FAO). Local maize and bean prices are expected to continue tightening through the end of the year as hiver season planting progresses. Imported rice will continue to remain available due to ample global supplies. 
Imported rice prices will, however, depend on the evolution of ongoing socio-political turmoil as well as the Haitian gourde to USD exchange rate. An import restriction by the Haitian government will continue to limit supply of key staples such as cooking oil and wheat flour, which are typically imported from the Dominican Republic. 

Regional availability and price trends varied across Central Asia with the progression of the 2017/18 marketing year (Figure 12 and Table 1). However, as detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, regional wheat deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade. 

In Pakistan, wheat grain and flour prices remained stable throughout October. Prices are comparable to 2015 and the five-year average reflecting average production and above-average carry-over stocks. 
Both basmati and IRRI rice prices were stable throughout October, but due to above-average rice production the last two years, prices are below-average. 

In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were stable throughout October following a below-average wheat harvest in 2017. In general, prices are below the respective 2015 levels, but slightly above the five-year average in some markets. 
Casual labor wages are above-average except in two markets: Hirat and Kabul. 

The 2017/2018 wheat harvest in Kazakhstan is estimated to be 14 million tons, seven percent below last year due to a reduction in area planted. Overall supply is supported by carry-over stocks that are 30 percent higher than the previous year (FAO/GIEWS). Kazakhstan is expected to maintain steady exports of wheat contributing to stable regional supplies. 
In Tajikistan, the wheat harvest will reportedly be seven percent above last year’s, likely reducing the import requirement in the coming marketing year (FAO/GIEWS). However, due to the weak national currency, nominal prices of wheat grain and flour are likely to remain high. 
Final wheat grain production in Pakistan for the 2016/17 marketing year is estimated at 25.2 MMT, slightly higher than last year and the five-year average (USDA/FAS). Average production for the last couple of years has resulted in above- average carry-over stocks that are nearly double the five-year average, which will help to maintain price stability at the national level and promote exports to Afghanistan. 

In Afghanistan, findings from the Agricultural Prospects Report of the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock indicate that the 2017 harvest is below last year and five-year average. Favorable domestic and regional supply conditions will contribute to stable prices in Afghanistan. 


