Seasonal rainfall continued throughout the Greater Horn, with increased precipitation amounts over the western regions of Ethiopia, and decreased amounts over the southern region compared to the previous couple of we ks. Lighter rainf ll accumulations were also received across many p rts of
Ug nda a d western Kenya following heavy, flood inducing rains earlier in March. However, locally moderate to heavy rainfall was observed over the Tana River and Garissa provinces in the southeast. In Somalia, light to locally moderate rainfall was received over the Jubba and Shabelle River basins according to satellite rainfall estimates (Figure 1). 

Over the last several weeks, a north-south or ented dipole anomaly pattern has developed throughout Ethiopia, as heavy and frequent rainfall has led to above-average moisture conditions in the south, and erratic and poorly distributed rains have resulted in anomalous dryness in the north (Figure 2). Since early March, the largest moisture deficits remain concentrated in the northern Oromia, eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and the Shinile zone of Ethiopia, with many local areas have experienced less t an half of their normal rainfall accumulation for the month of March. The continuation of suppressed precipitation in April is likely to adversely impact ground conditions and cropping activities, as there is not much opportunity for moisture recovery before rains begin their cessation in May over the region. 

Further south, significantly high moisture surpluses (100-200mm) have encompassed much f Kenya and n rthern Tanzania due to torrential rainfall amounts that f ll several we ks ago. Although rains have gradually decreased during the last dekad in March, saturated ground conditions are likely to sustain the risk for localized flash floods and river basin inundation over Kenya. 

For the upcoming outlook period, a significant increase in the quantity and distribution of seasonal rainfall is forecast over Ethiopia according to the latest model dat . Widespread weekly accumulat ons in excess of 50mm are expected throughout southern and eastern Ethiopia, with higher amounts also expected across northern and southern Somalia during early April. 

For the s ond consecutive week, enhanced rainfall amounts were registered over much of southwestern Africa, which has helped to mitigate seasonal dryness over parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia. Torrential and possibly flood inducing rainfall amounts were also registered over central Mozambique, where some local areas recorded over 150mm during the last week. 

During the next week, heavy rainfall is expected to continue over southern and central Angola with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts in northwestern Namibia. While this could help to reduce short-term deficits, drought-like conditions are expected to for the remainder of the season towards the south. Elsewhere in southern Africa, generally seasonable rainfall is forecast. 

Seasonal rainfall continued throughout the Greater Horn, with increased precipitation amounts over the western regions of Ethiopia, and decreased amounts over the southern region compared to the previous couple of weeks. Lighter rainfall accumulations were also receiv d across many pa ts of Ugand and western Keny following heavy, flood inducing rains earlier i March. However, locally moderate to heavy rainfall was observed over the Tana River and Garissa provinces in the southeast. In Somalia, light to locally moderate rainfall was received over the Jubba and Shabelle River basins according to satellite rainfall estimates (Figure 1). 

Over the last several weeks, a north-south oriented dipole anomaly pattern has d velop d throughout Ethiopia, as heavy nd frequent rainfall has led to above-average moisture conditions in the south, and erratic and poorly distributed rains have resulted in anomalous dryness in the north (Figure 2). Since early March, the largest moisture deficits remain concentrated in the northern Oromia, eastern Amhara, eastern Tigray, and the Shinile zone of Ethiopia, with many local areas have experienced l ss than half of their normal rainfall ccumulation for the month of March. The continuation of suppressed precipitation in April is likely to adversely impact ground conditions and cropping activities, as there is not much opportunity for moisture recovery before rains begin their cessation in May over the region. 

Further south, significantly high moisture surpluses (100-200mm) have encompassed much of Kenya and northern Tanzania due to torrential rainfall amounts that fell several weeks ago. Although rains have gradually decreased during the last dekad in M rch, saturated ground conditions are likely to sustain the risk for localized flash floods and river basin inundation over Kenya. 

For the upcoming outlook period, a significant increase in the quantity and distribution of seasonal rainfall is forecast over Ethiopia according to the latest model data. Widespread weekly accumulations in excess of 50mm are expected throughout southern and eastern Ethiopia, with higher amounts also expected across northern and southern Somalia during early April. 

For th s con consecutiv week, enhanced rai fall amounts were registered ov r much of southwestern Africa, which has helped to mitigate seasonal dryness over parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia. Torrential and possibly flood inducing rainfall amounts were also registered over central Mozambique, where some local areas recorded over 150mm during the last week. 

During the n xt week, hea y rainfall is expected to continue over southern and central Angola with the potential for locally heavy rainfall amounts in northwestern Namibia. While this could help to reduce short-term deficits, drought-like conditions are expected to for the remainder of the season towards the south. Elsewhere in southern Africa, generally seasonable rainfall is forecast. 

