Poor 2017 rainfed wheat production, particularly in parts of the north and northeast, will force households to atypically rely earlier on market purchases for their primary staple. Many of these households, along with conflict-displaced and returnees from Pakistan, are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the 2018 lean season, in the absence of assistance.

Pastoral minor: July-September 2017
Data collected during the post-Gu in July indicates that extreme levels of food insecurity persist in central and northern pastoral areas. Food security has improved marginally in agropastoral and agricultural areas with the Gu harvest. Some improvements are expected with the October-December rains and even more with the start of the March-May Gu rainfall. 
However, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are still possible in some pastoral areas. 

Kasai/Tanganyika: Oct - Dec 2017
Food assistance needs are expected during the post-harvest period, following below-average Season A harvests in some localized areas. Additionally, rural households may experience limited Season B cultivation due to conflict-related population movements, particularly in the Kasais where about 20 percent of the rural population (1,720,000 people) are displaced, as well as damages from pests, including the Fall Armyworm. 

Conflict is the primary driver of the largest food security emergency in the world, which is associated with high levels of acute malnutrition as well as excess mortality. The recent decision of the Central Bank in Aden to float the Yemeni Rial is raising concerns about the potential impact on future food imports and staple food prices. The potential for conflict in Al Hudaydah Governorate to restrict food imports through Hudaydah and Salif ports also remains a high concern.

SE Pastoral: February - March 2018
In Dollo, parts of Korahe, Shebelle, and Afder zones of Somali Region, large populations are expected to require assistance into March 2017, and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outomes are possible due to excessive livestock losses. Poor households in some Belg -dominant areas of SNNPR will begin to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. 

January - July 2018
Food security has improved marginally with the ongoing harvest but is expected to deteriorate in early 2018 when harvest stocks are depleted. Food availability is expected to be lower than previously anticipated in Torit, Magwi, Budi, Juba, and Aweil Center, due to crop damage from Fall Armyworm. Some households on isolated islands along the While Nile of Leer and Ayod could be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) and concern will remain high for them with the 2018 lean season.

Northeast: April/May - September 2017
Although main season harvests will seasonally improve food security outcomes in many parts of the country, conflict-affected populations in the northeast, particularly in Borno State, will remain highly dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access after little or no own production, extremely limited income opportunities, high food prices, and limited market access. 
There remains an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in inaccessible areas of Borno State.

South: October 2017 - March 2018
Consecutive years of drought and below-average harvests are expected to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in southern Madagascar, beginning in October 2017, when households will begin to exhaust their food stocks.

Central: October 2017 - March 2018
At the peak of the lean season in March, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in semiarid areas in northwestern Sofala Province where poor households will have exhausted their food stocks and income and rely on coping strategies. 

Poor households in southern and northern periphery districts are likely to experience food gaps because of reduced labor wages, lower remittances, and below-average income from crop and livestock sales due to the national cash shortages.

In Karamoja, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist, but there may be some households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). According to WFP, funding levels are sufficient to continue providing assistance through September, but in March 2018, in the absence of assistance, South Sudanese refugees would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Pastoral: July - October 2017
The October to December 2017 short rains are not expected to be sufficient to fully restore rangeland resources and livestock productivity across northern pastoral areas, particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, West Pokot, Isiolo, and Mandera. As a result, significant numbers of poor households are still expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in March 2018.

Poor household livelihoods in parts of the central and southern regions are still recovering from consecutive years of poor production. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the lean period are expected for some of these households. 

June - September 2018
Urgent assistance will be required for IDPs and some resident households in SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan and in Jebel Marra areas of Darfur, even after the onset of harvests in October 2017. Moreover, the ongoing influx of South Sudanese refugees is expected to increase humanitarian assistance needs. 


