The main June to September 2017 rainy season was above average in most areas. However, in Kassala and parts of northern Gadaref, North Darfur, and North Kordofan there was below-average rainfall, which led to below-normal crop production and poor regeneration of pasture and water resources. Therefore, these areas may face an early start of the lean season.

Presently, large areas of southeastern Ethiopia are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3!), with humanitarian assistance preventing worse outcomes in some areas. High levels of acute malnutrition and the ongoing AWD outbreak remain concerning. Sustained, large-scale assistance is needed through at least mid-2018 to mitigate the risk of increases of acute malnutrition and a further deterioration of outcomes. 

January - April 2018
Although the number of returnees from Pakistan in need of assistance has been much lower in 2017, continued widespread conflict-induced displacement, poor 2017 agricultural production in rainfed areas, and weak casual labor markets will lead to an increase in the number of people facing acute food insecurity in 2018 as compared to recent years. 

March - September 2018
Boko Haram conflict in the northeast has devastated normal livelihoods, and most households in conflict-affected areas had very limited or no 2017 staple production. By June 2018, food prices will increase seasonally, at a time when households are fully dependent on market purchases and/or assistance for food access. There remains an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in areas that are inaccessible to humanitarian intervention.

Pastoral: January - March 2018
Food security is expected to improve slightly in June with the Gu harvest. However, Gu rainfall is forecast to be below average, the fifth consecutive poor season in the country. Many households still face large food consumption gaps while relying on humanitarian assistance and funding levels are not yet known to determine if assistance is likely through mid-2018. In the extended absence of assistance, in a worst case scenario, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is likely. 

Over half of South Sudan's population is expected to need humanitarian assistance in June, the middle of the lean season. WFP has requested USD 16.6 million for Emergency Operations between December 2017 and May 2018, though funding levels are not yet known. It is likely some households are currently in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the post-harvest period, and in a worst-case scenario of an extended absence of humanitarian assistance, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is likely. 

The deterioration of pastoral conditions, due to dryness and limited herd movements, and the Boko Haram conflict are the main drivers of food insecurity and will induce an early onset of the pastoral lean season. 

South Sudanese refugees represent the majority of the population in need in Uganda. In the absence of assistance, they would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Assistance is funded through December, but WFP is likely to face funding shortfalls starting in January. June is the peak of the lean season in Karamoja, and it is estimated 160,000 people will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The conflict among communities continues to have a severe impact on markets and livelihoods, decreasing food availability, and access. Attacks against humanitarian actors are also likely to jeopardize needed food assistance delivery. 

Livelihoods are being disrupted by Boko Haram conflict in the Diffa and the Lake Chad regions. Fodder deficits, poor livestock body conditions, and cross-border trade disruptions will likely lead to an early start of the pastoral lean season. 

Tanganyika: January - April 2018
Conflict-related population movements will affect Season A cultivation. Coupled with below-average harvests during Season B, this will create food assistance needs through at least the end of the lean season in April 2018, particularly in the greater Kasai region and Tanganyika. Increased imports from Zambia have made food more accessible for households in the south.

NE Pastoral: July - October 2018
While improvements in food security are expected in June, following the March-May 2018 long rains and early harvests in marginal agricultural areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in parts of Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Isiolo, and Garissa. 
These areas had below-average rangeland regeneration during the short rains, and food and income are likely to be low.


