Conflict is the primary driver of the largest food security emergency in the world, which is associated by high levels of acute malnutrition as well as excess mortality. The potential for increased conflict near Al Hudaydah is leading to high concern about future food imports. In a worst-case scenario where food imports drop substantially for a sustained period of time or where conflict persistently restricts flows of food to local markets, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible.

A large-scale food security Emergency continues in South Sudan. Food security is expected to improve slightly in late 2017 with the harvest, but most poor households in worst-affected areas will deplete stocks atypically early and food security will again deteriorate in early 2018. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains and of greatest concern are about 10,000 people on isolated islands between central Unity and northwestern Jonglei, some of whom may be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). 

E/W Hararghe: April - September 2017
In Dollo, parts of Korahe, Shebelle, and Afder zones of Somali Region, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in February, while some of the most vulnerable poor households may still remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) due to the excessive livestock losses. In other areas, access to food from the Meher harvest will likely still be available in February.

Food security is expected to improve in agropastoral areas with the likely average Deyr harvest. In pastoral areas, households have few livestock to sell and herd size recovery will be slow, even with average October to December rainfall. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected in some worst-affected areas of southern and northeastern pastoral livelihood zones. 

Northeast: April/May - September 2017
The conflict with Boko Haram has caused extensive population displacement and severe disruption of livelihoods in the northeast, particularly in Borno State. Many populations in accessible areas are heavily dependent on humanitarian assistance for food access. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely to continue in February 2018, with a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in areas inaccessible to humanitarian actors.

Pastoral: July - October 2017
Following the July "long" rains assessment and revised forecasts that indicate most of the northern pastoral areas and southeastern marginal agricultural areas are likely to receive below-average October to December 2017 rains, there will be significant numbers of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and requiring humanitarian assistance in February 2018.

January - April 2018
Ongoing conflict and associated displacement continues to disrupt livelihoods in parts of most provinces, with about 850,000 people displaced since January 2016. More than 300,000 Afghan nationals have returned from Pakistan since January 2017, with few assets. Extended periods of dryness in March and April have led to poor rainfed wheat production, particularly in the north and northeast.

Once food stocks are exhausted, poor households are likely to experience food gaps in marginal areas of the south and north because of reduced off-farm labor activities, petty trade, and remittances due to the national cash shortages.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected for a number of poor households due to the security situation in the Diffa region as well as the trade restrictions from Nigeria that are keeping staple food import prices high. 

Poor households in Karonga and Nsanje are unlikely to meet their non-food needs due to poor production as a result of dryness and the impact of Fall Armyworm and ongoing recovery of livelihoods from the 2015/16 drought.

Urgent assistance will be required for IDPs and some resident households in SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan and in Jebel Marra areas of Darfur, even after the onset of harvests in October 2017. Moreover, the ongoing influx of South Sudanese refugees is expected to increase humanitarian assistance needs. 

Tanganyika: Oct - Dec 2017
Food assistance needs are expected during the post-harvest period following below-average Season A harvests in some localized areas. Additionally, rural households may experience limited Season B cultivation due to conflict-related population movements as well as damages from pests, including the Fall Armyworm. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in some central semiarid areas during the lean season beginning in October. Poor households are gradually rebuilding their livelihoods from the recently-ended conflict and the 2015/16 drought.

South Sudanese refugees are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of humanitarian assistance. Nearly a million refugees from South Sudan are currently in Uganda and the number is expected to rise through February 2018. A relatively small number of poor households in Karamoja are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in February. 


