Conflict and drought are driving very high assistance needs in East Africa and Yemen, with more than 35 million people likely to require humanitarian assistance by May 2018. 
Sustained, large-scale humanitarian assistance is needed to protect livelihoods and mitigate the potential for loss of life. 

In 2018, three countries in East Africa face an increased risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in a worst-case scenario, including in South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen. In parts of southeastern Ethiopia, some households are likely already facing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes. In Yemen, the immediate resumption of essential imports through all Yemeni ports is critical to avert a severe deterioration of food security, health outcomes, and the potential for wide-spread starvation and loss of life. 

In Sudan, assistance is needed in some northern pastoral and agropastoral areas, in SPLM-N-controlled South Kordofan, and in Jebel Marra. Displacement continues to drive assistance needs among IDPs in Burundi and refugees in Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda. 

A major food security Emergency is expected to continue in southeastern Ethiopia into mid-2018. Worst-affected areas include Dollo, Korahe, and Jarar zones, along with parts of Afder and Liben, which will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through May 2018, while some households will be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Large-scale, sustained assistance is needed in order to mitigate food consumption gaps and limited increases in acute malnutrition and the risk of excess mortality. 

Food security among poor households in Belg-dependent areas of SNNPR (Segen, Wolayita, Gamo Gofa, Gedeo) will deteriorate from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the February to June 2018 lean season, as a result of poor Belg harvests in 2017 and high staple food prices. Elsewhere, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance will begin to increase in some Meher-dependent areas of eastern Amhara, southern Tigray, and eastern Oromia with an early onset to the June to September 2018 lean season. Overall, humanitarian assistance needs are expected to peak at approximately 5.5 million people between February and May 2018. 

Following at least two consecutive poor rainy seasons, food security needs are expected to peak in October 2017 as food and income sources are below-average across most of pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through early December in areas of Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Tana River, Samburu, and Laikipia, requiring urgent humanitarian assistance. However, an improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected across all pastoral areas in early 2018; however, some of the most vulnerable households are still likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Over the western half of the country, off-season rains since July have led to significant improvements in forage, water, and livestock body conditions, which has allowed for terms of trade to be above average in Turkana and West Pokot, facilitating greater food access. While there are some regional variations in the forecast, the short rains (October – December) and long rains (March – May) are expected to lead to better livestock productivity and crop production. 

Based on the forecasted average to below-average rainfall for the area, the short rains harvest in the marginal agricultural areas may be slightly below normal. Regardless, short-cycle crops, available from December, are expected to restore depleted household stocks. With less market dependence and improved incomes through crop sales, food consumption and nutrition levels are expected to increase, facilitating improved food security outcomes. 

Food security needs are nearly double the five-year average in Somalia, with an estimated 2,444,000 people currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 866,000 in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Widespread food insecurity is driven by three consecutive poor seasons that led to well below-average production and large-scale livestock losses, which have reduced household access to food and income. Sustained humanitarian assistance has prevented more extreme outcomes in many areas, though persistent drought threatens recovery of normal livelihoods, and further deterioration in food security is likely through May 2018. 

Rainfall in October, the start and peak month of the Deyr season, was erratically distributed and approximately 50 percent below average in most areas. Rainfall in November and December is not expected to significantly improve crop prospects. Furthermore, a below-average April to June 2018 Gu season is likely, and if this forecast comes to fruition it will mark the fifth consecutive poor season in Somalia. Below-average production and limited regeneration of pasture and water is expected throughout the outlook period. 

Widespread food insecurity occurred during the peak of the 2017 lean season (July/August), with some households experiencing an extreme lack of food equivalent to Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Data from Round 20 of the Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring Systems (FSNMS) and corroborating evidence from key informants suggests Greater Baggari of Wau, Leer of Unity, Ayod and Nyirol of Jonglei, Tonj North and Tonj South of Warrap, Rumbek North and Yirol West of Lakes, and Kapoeta East of Eastern Equatoria as the most likely locations of significant Phase 5 populations. However, data suggest that Phase 5 populations may have been present in as many as 19 counties. 

An estimated 4.7 million people are currently in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. Though it is the harvest period, worst affected households, particularly IDPs who were unable to plant, likely remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) or Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). The area of greatest current concern is Greater Baggari of Wau where two rapid assessments have suggested levels of acute malnutrition above the Famine (IPC Phase 5) threshold, but little corroborating evidence is available. 
 6 million people are likely to require emergency food assistance. Even if assistance continues at current levels (reaching roughly half of the food insecure population), Famine (IPC Phase 5) remains possible in 2018 given the severity of outcomes during 2017, the expected deterioration in underlying conditions over the coming year, and the possibility of conflict-related restrictions on assistance delivery and population movement. In a worst-case scenario, characterized by the extended absence of humanitarian assistance, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely in many areas of the country. 
Areas of concern include Central Unity, northwest Jonglei, and Wau of Western Bahr El Ghazel. Conditions in Lakes and Warrap are also increasingly of concern. 

Given the continued risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), large-scale, multi-sector assistance, above 2017 levels, is needed urgently to save lives. These assistance flows should be complemented by commitments by all parties to facilitate humanitarian access. Further, urgent action to end the conflict is needed. 
For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from October 2017 to May 2018. 

Harvests starting in October, seasonal improvements in livestock productivity, and increased seasonal labor income are improving food security outcomes to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in most areas. However, very poor seasonal progress in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas of Kassala, northern Gadaref, and parts of North Darfur, are leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and humanitarian assistance needs between now and mid-2018. 

Food access is also improving among IDPs and poor households in Jebel Marra and SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan. However, restrictions on access to land, limited agricultural labor opportunities, and continued low asset holdings as a result of conflict continue to limit household productive capacity. Households in these areas will continue to require humanitarian assistance through May 2018. 
Overall, the main season rains performed very well over most parts of Sudan, and national harvest prospects are near average. However, severe mid-season dry spells and well below-average seasonal rainfall resulted in significantly reduced area planted in Kassala and northern Gadaref. Moreover, poor rainfall in these areas and in parts of North Darfur led to very poor regeneration of pasture and water sources for livestock. 
For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from October 2017 to May 2018. 

Food security is improving among poor households in Karamoja with the harvest. Sorghum harvests are estimated to be near average in most areas, but maize crop prospects are less favorable due to Fall Armyworm (FAW) infestations. 
Most poor households are meeting their basic food needs, but face difficulty affording some essential non-food needs and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In Abim and Kotido, where production was more favorable, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes exist during the harvest. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in all districts of Karamoja between February and May. 

Average to above average rainfall in bimodal areas is expected to result in average November/December harvests. Some maize crop losses are expected due to FAW infestations, though recent field reports indicate impacts are less significant than originally expected, due to increased pest management and prevention in some areas. In addition to expected favorable production, average food prices will support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. 
WFP is providing monthly food assistance to over 1.2 million refugees in Uganda, the majority of whom are from South Sudan. Most refugees have limited sources of food and income outside of humanitarian assistance. According to WFP, available funding will allow for continued assistance at current levels through December. However, the Programme faces a funding gap of 43 million USD to meet assistance needs through March 2018. Refugees are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through December, but would likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) after December in the absence of assistance. 
For more information, see the Food Security Outlook from October 2017 to May 2018. 

Large populations in Yemen continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity, the latter of which is associated with increased acute malnutrition and an increased risk of excess mortality. IDP populations, poor households in conflict zones, and poor households in areas with very high levels of acute malnutrition are likely facing the most severe outcomes. 

Season A planting is complete, and according to FAO, there is a Fall Armyworm (FAW) infestation that affected newly planted maize. The extent of the infestation is unclear, but this is likely to impact yields, particularly in Makamba, Rumonge, Muyinga, and Kirundo provinces. As a result, some poor households in these areas may face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by April-May 2018, but Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is the highest expected area classification through May 2018. 
 1 With remote monitoring, an analyst typically works from a nearby regional office, relying on a network of partners for data. Compared to the previous series of countries in which FEWS NET has a local office, reports on remote monitoring countries may offer less detail. 

The lean season is ongoing and poor households face food access constraints due to low household stocks and below- average incomes for needed market purchases. Staple food prices continued to increase in October, with bean and cassava flour prices approximately 25 and 100 percent higher, respectively, than a year ago. Prices should ease slightly in late November ahead of harvests, and seasonally rise again in March 2018, remaining slightly higher or about equal to the five year-averages through May 2018. 

According to UNHCR, Rwanda hosts about 162,000 refugees, including nearly 58,000 Burundians who live in camps and rely on humanitarian assistance. Approximately 456 Burundian asylum seekers arrived in September, but larger influxes are likely to come from the DRC due to civil unrest. Facing a severe funding shortfall, WFP recently announced it is likely to institute ration cuts in November for refugees living in camps. 
For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Report for October 2017. 

The 2017/18 October to December Vuli and October to May Msimu seasons are underway, characterized by land preparation and planting. Msimu production, which makes up around 70 percent of total national production, is expected to be average. Poor households in these southern unimodal areas are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout the projection period. 

Some poor households in northern bimodal and central unimodal areas are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through February. These households depleted stocks from the previous below-average season around September and face difficulty purchasing both sufficient food and inputs for the ongoing season. However, food access has improved somewhat for these poor households, who are accessing early season agricultural labor opportunities and purchasing food at average prices. 
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates the total number of refugees in Tanzania is over 360,000 as of September 30, of whom approximately 261,061 are from Burundi. Funding shortfalls in 2017 have resulted in a consistent reduction in the size of food ration provided to refugees. In September and October, refugees were provided with a food ration of 62 percent of required daily caloric needs. Through December, with newly secured funds and in-kind assistance, food assistance at current levels is likely to continue and most refugees will maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). Assistance plans and funding levels beyond December are unknown and in the absence of assistance, refugees would likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 
For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Report for October 2017. 

Efforts to implement the Peace Agreement that leads to a permanent ceasefire would improve the security and allow households to slowly regain their livelihoods and return to their places of origin. Trade flows and humanitarian assistance could better reach households in need, and households would be able to move in search of food and pursue income-earning opportunities. Food insecurity would be less severe throughout the outlook period and the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) would greatly decline. 

Livestock body conditions would improve, although with slow recovery of livestock herd sizes. However, pastoral households in worst affected areas would still face large food consumption gaps. In agropastoral areas, the Deyr harvest would sustain smaller food consumption gaps. Consumption would further improve in mid-2018 as households have average access to labor opportunities during the Gu. Many households would still be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the absence of assistance, and emergency humanitarian assistance would still be needed to sustain lives and livelihoods, but Famine (IPC Phase 5) would not be the most likely outcome. 

